Since access to oil is indispensable for all industrialised countries, this gives some arab states influence beyond the region. The geopolitics of gas and oil cartels and the changing middle east songying fang, 1 amy myers jaffe 2 and ted lochtemzelides 3 executive summary two recent political and economic developments in the middle east and the united states are likely to bring significant changes to energy markets. Middle east and caspian sea region, as it was proved by the. The geopolitics of oil and gas pipelines in the middle east by south front global research, february 16, 2016. The geopolitics of gas and oil cartels and the changing middle east songying fang,a amy myers jaffe,b and ted lochtemzelidesc abstract the ongoing democratic movements and civil wars in the middle east have challenged the stability of regimes across the region. Securing access to oil and gas through overland routes has been a key tenet of the belt and road initiative bri since its inception in. In order to understand how the geopolitics of oil and gas may change, we need to. The rapid growth of renewable energy is likely to alter the power and influence of some states and regions relative to others, and to redraw the geopolitical map in the 21 st century in a renewable energy economy, most countries will be able to achieve energy independence. While global powers such as russia and the us remain active in the middle east, regional protagonists are implementing their own foreign policy. At the same time, due to new technological advancements.
Renewable energy is expanding dramatically and so is the demand for. An energy transformation driven by renewables will alter the global distribution of power, relations between states, the risk of conflict, and the social, economic and environmental drivers of geopolitical instability. The middle east controls so much of the worlds energy supply that when oil and gas prices rise in the middle east, prices around the world rise as well. Oil markets and the geopolitics of the middle east. Securing access to oil and gas through overland routes has been a key tenet of the belt and road initiative bri since its inception in 20. Food trade has been used as a political weapon in the middle east on various occasions.
The united states is likely to give way to russia, china, india and japan as the main external players in the middle east shatterbelt. The middle east has a distinct geopolitical logic, with local and external powers locked in an eternally shifting energy great game. For instance, the 20162017 global competitiveness report shows that the regions economic achievers, the united arab emirates uae and qatar, rank at 16 and 18. This is reflected in country rankings on global economic indicators. The geopolitical frame in the contemporary middle east. China will therefore remain an essential player in the old geopolitics of energy. Impact of lower oil prices1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000. New geopolitics of oil in the middle east, and its implications for chinas oil diplomacy. The geopolitics of renewable energy 1 introduction for decades, the geopolitics of energy has been largely synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas.
More than 180 trucks and tankers were burned in the attack. Regional geopolitical rivalries in the middle east. The norwegian institute for defence studies has agreed to re issue this essay, which was first published in the series distinguished speakers in political geography by the royal military college of canada in march 2001 as, geopolitics and the new middle east isbn 1896354262. As competition continues for a vital resource, the strategic calculations of major and minor countries alike place prominent emphasis on the pumping, refining, transport, sale and use of petroleum products. Incorporated as a notforprofit foundation in 1971, and headquartered in geneva, switzerland, the forum is tied to no political, partisan or national interests. Unlike many water parched areas of the middle east, turkeys water. Kerry brown is professor at the university of sydney and associate fellow at chatham house. Brent scowcroft center on international security middle east 2020. The new geopolitics in the middle east 2 the new geopolitics in the middle east an opportunity for stability in the region menas oil exports are changing course from west to east figure 1.
Jan 17, 2019 qatar, a marginal oil producer but the holder of the worlds largest reserves of natural gas, even chose to leave opec. The focus on how oil and gas shapes the way states develop, interact with one another, form alliances and wage war has made a certain amount of sense. Koichiro tanaka geopolitical events have so far shaken the world economy beyond spatial and temporal domains, as have those in the middle east. The region rarely enjoys any long span of stability. Houthi rebels launch missile attack on saudi oil terminal. Renewable energy is expanding dramatically and so is the demand for natural gas. The geopolitics of the united states, the middle east and iran. Middle east producers will not necessarily lose strategic influence as oil demand declines one of the transformational impacts of the covid19 crisis has been the decimation of upstream oil and gas capital expenditure capex. The geopolitics of oil it is a sad fact of life that many of the worlds leading oil producing countries are either politically unstable andor at serious odds with the u. The 1967 war, the yomkippur war,1973s oil embargo, 1979 iranian revolution, iraqiran war in 1980s, this and many more.
Pdf geopolitical analysis of the greater middle east system. The most notable example of this is the economic and social reform plan launched in 2016 called saudi vision 2030. Paul stevens introduction since 2014, geopolitics almost disappeared from oil pricing in the international market. Palgrave, 2000 7 meti senior official, interview with author, march 2014. This paper presents a systemic analysis of the greater middle east geocomplex, in the light of the geopolitical factor of the islamist movement both shiite and sunnite. Introduction the geopolitics of oil has remained remarkably static for the last 40 years since the iranian revolution at the end of the 1970s. This document pdf may be used for research, teaching and private study purposes. In the case of iran, the us shale revolution will complicate. The geopolitical implications of future oil demand chatham house. The pattern of uneven development in the middle east is likely to continue, with the oil producing gulf states offering the most opportunity for their youthful. A new world the geopolitics of the energy transformation. Prospects of mediterranean gas for the regions stability and eu. Middle east relations 75 years later february 25, 2020 me auditorium 12001250 abstract as we approach the 75th anniversary of the.
Regional and external actors in middle eastern geopolitics usa, russia. The oil crises raised questions about the ability of the united states to ensure access to middle east oil, heightened concerns about the dan. Instead, the trump administration has doubled down on its support for regional. Impact of lower oil prices1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000. The middle east and the geopolitics of the energy transition. Since oil prices started a plunge around the emergence of the isis as a new threat in syria and iraq, however, geopolitical factors have apparently lost. Pdf new geopolitics of oil in the middle east, and its. Most of these countries are members of the organization of the petroleum exporting countries opec. Since 2014, geopolitics almost disappeared from oil pricing in the international market. However, international climate policy and unconventional oil and gas developments may change the balance of power between petroleum. Geography, resources and the geopolitics of middle east conflicts. Dark geopolitics of the middle east camp, including egypt, jordan, and syria, leading to the humiliation of arab nationalists and the death of panarabism. The changing geopolitics of oil in the middle east world.
Middle east oil are probably misplaced, as neither washington nor beijing may be able to attain. The president reiterated the notion that the us is not in a struggle with. Apr 27, 2018 there have been even more serious incidences. Firstly, this region contains greater hydrocarbons. May 24, 2019 and discrepancies exist between oil rich and non oil rich states, as well as within the oil rich camp. In order for stability to return to the middle east, international powers will need to cooperate with the major regional powers on a regional security architecture. However, middle east of today is utterly different from middle east of the past century in many ways.
Secondly, many countries there are able to choose between several routes for oil and gas. At a time like this, it is tempting to think that oil will finally become just another commodity rather than one of the most important factors in global geopolitics. Jan 07, 2019 the new geopolitics of the middle east. Saudi arabia must prepare for more attacks on its oil. At the same time, renewable energy is growing rapidly. For example, american influence within the middle east is rapidly declining both because of the push of the arab spring and the pull of u.
Islamist movements, however, survived the efforts of middle eastern rulers and. Consequences of climate policy and unconventional oil and gas 3525. Historical perspectives on the current crisis monday, november 4, 2019 at 9. Mar 08, 2021 according to the londonbased nongovernmental organization syrian observatory for human rights sohr, russian warships in the mediterranean fired three missiles that hit makeshift oil refineries as well as tanks, 75 kilometers north of the aleppo regions administrative center.
The geopolitics of oil and gas pipelines in the middle east. Geography, resources and the geopolitics of middle east. As the cold war split the middle east along an east west line, oil was emerging as the most significant global energy resource, and the local economies gradually became dependent on oil rent. The second effect on major oil supplying countries is in the area of economic planning and diversification. Ottoman empires, turkey was the bridge between east and west, a bustling center of trade and a strategic economic and political nexus between regions of the world. Handbook of oil politics the changing geopolitics of oil. The world is moving towards a decarbonized energy system.
This is likely to create significant tensions with the u. Saudi arabia in emboldened yet vulnerable by echague, a. Protests, not geopolitics, will shape the middle east in. The shale revolution and the new geopolitics of energy. Middle east give way to competition for regional dominance.
In the 1970s, there were threats of food embargoes in retaliation to the arab oil boycott and the iranian hostage crisis, and a grain opec was contemplated, either to extract political favors from oil. In four years, the region has transitioned from the great hopes for democratisation emanating from the 2011 wave of popular revolutions towards a spiral of fragmentation, insecurity and fragility. May 22, 2018 investment activity throughout the middle east. In the 1960s, the us used the food for peace program p.
Explanation however, and especially the implications of its return, are clouded by uncertainty. Recent developments in geopolitics of energy and their. Geopolitics and democracy in the middle east 7 benedetta berti is kreitman fellow at ben gurion university and fellow at the institute for national security studies. In addition to its geographic power, turkey has historically possessed substantial water resources. Roosevelt and abdul aziz ibn saud, on february 14, 1945. Pdf this paper provides a comprehensive overview of how climate policy and unconventional oil and. Geopolitics and democracy in the middle east the web site cannot. The geopolitics of falling oil prices brookings institution. Geopolitics and democracy in the middle east 11 the middle east and north africa mena is undergoing a profound geopolitical recon. The geopolitics of oil over the past 120 years have played a central role in. Middle eastern countries have a more complex and extensive pipeline system than countries in north africa.
Pdf geopolitical analysis of the greater middle east. Edward burke is associate fellow at fride and phd candidate at university of st. Geopolitics of the middle east and north africa, 19512011 graduate international affairs gpia, the new school university, new york city, fall 2011. For a century, the geopolitics of energy has been synonymous with the geopolitics of oil and gas. Geopolitics, international relations, and the future of the. The most significant regional development was the formation of the state of israel and the resulting first major arabisraeli war. Changing geopolitics of oil and the impact on india core. Much of this oil around 20 percent of the worlds total supplypasses through a narrow body of water known as the strait of hormuz, which separates iran from the gulf countries. Oil contributes to global conflict, not only are oil prices, but the geopolitics of oil also is linked to high military spending and regional conflicts in the middle east. While opec countries produce about 40% of the worlds oil, they hold 80% of proven global reserves, and 85% of these reserves are in the middle. For the whole region, education levelsalthough improvinglag those of other regions, making it more difficult for the middle east to compete globally. Jan 03, 2020 what will the end of oil dependence mean for geopolitics. It is a sad fact of life that many of the worlds leading oil producing countries are either politically unstable andor at serious odds with the u.
However, geopolitics and the global energy economy are both changing. Toppling of saddam hussein in the march 2003 iraq invasion. What will the end of oil dependence mean for geopolitics. The international order predominant since the end of world war ii faces mounting challenges. Sanctions and low oil prices push back time frame for east siberia and arctic development meanwhile european demand is falling and russian is pivoting to asia. Middle east has the highest proven oil reserves in all of the three decades. For major middle east oil and gas exporters, as well as russia, us shale gas and tight oil may alter the economics of gas development and of the oil market. The world economic forum is an independent international organization committed to improving the state of the world by engaging business, political, academic and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas.
Petroleum politics have been an increasingly important aspect of diplomacy since the rise of the petroleum industry in the middle east in the early 20th century. Geopolitics, international relations, and the future of. Geopolitics the geography of international relations saul. Mackinder and brzezinski us president barack obamas speech to the muslim world in cairo marked the opening of a new chapter in us foreign policy. Pdf new geopolitics of oil in the middle east, and its implications.
424 636 66 1546 1539 491 1657 182 1074 679 891 1548 873 1198 1235 1138 496 458 1456 218 853 977 424